The Hope to which He has called us (II) The Stockdale paradox

Continuing Paul’s prayer “that we may know the hope to which He has called us” (Ephesians 1:18), I want to talk this morning about the Stockdale paradox. This was popularized by Jim Collins in his book “Good to great.” Named after James Stockdale who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, the basic idea is that you have to balance reality with the right kind of optimism, the right kind of hope. Many of his fellow prisoners had the wrong kind of optimism, or perhaps it was a wrong view of reality. Stockdale’s point is that you must never confuse the faith (the hope) that you will prevail in the end, with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts, whatever they may be. It is a paradox, because what he is saying, is that you must face the reality that your case is essentially hopeless, yet not loose hope.


Victor Frankel interred in the Nazi death camps, tells similarly of what happens when these things are not held in tension. In particular between Christmas 1944 and New Year’s 1945,  a large number of prisoners died. This was not, he tells us, due to a decrease in the already poor conditions, or in fact anything exterior to them. Frankel attributes this to the loss of hope of those who had been banking on getting out by Christmas. When it didn't happen disappointment overcame them, and this had a disastrous effect on their ability to resist.  A great many of them died. Like everything else that is practical and works,  the principle being expounded here can be found encapsulated in Scripture. The Lord had promised childless Abraham that he would become the father of many nations (Genesis 17:4). The Scripture tells  that it was twenty five years after the initial promise that it was fulfilled. We are told that Abraham “contrary to hope, in hope believed” (Romans 4:18). In other words he faced the brutal facts that his body was “already dead since he was about a hundred years old” (verse 19), and that Sarah was 99. Yet in spite of of it all he  retained hope!


Stockdale recounts that paradoxically it was the optimists that lost hope and died. He tells that they were the ones who said “We will get out by Christmas, and Christmas would come and go. Then they would say we will be out by Easter, and Easter would come and go,  .…, and when it did not happen they died of a broken heart.” Without hope, we do not seem to be able to live. And that is why we,  with Paul,  need to pray that we may know the hope to which He as called us. In particular we need a revelation that God has plans for us, plans to prosper us to give us peace and a future,  and a hope (Jeremiah 29:11).


Father, faith and hope seem to be inextricably linked and, as the above examples illustrate, hope and faith are also linked to our physical health. I don’t pretend to understand depression, but I suspect that there is a link there too.  But in any case Father,  I pray again this morning for myself,  and all those reading this, that You would give us a spirit of wisdom and revelation in order that we may know the hope to which You have called us. I also pray that we would progressively realize that hope given by You,  is a sure hope in Jesus Name Amen